Both Moody’s and Fitch have maintained Indonesia’s investment-grade ratings (BBB/Baa2), suggesting that core macro fundamentals—solid growth, manageable public debt, and overall macro stability—remain intact.

Geopolitical conflict escalation in the Middle East has lifted the geopolitical risk premium, with the Strait of Hormuz access as the key swing factor

Renewed geopolitical tensions. On 28 February, Israel and the US launched a massive, coordinated strike on Iran.

CMRY’s FY25 result was in line with Mansek and Consensus FY25F across all accounts, with <2% deviation, with sales and core profit YoY growth of +19% and +34%, respectively.

ASII’s 12M25 net profit came at Rp32.8tn (-3% YoY), in line with our/consensus forecasts.

Higher inflation in December. Headline inflation rose to 2.9% y-o-y in December from 2.7% in November, slightly above both our and consensus forecasts (Mansek and consensus: 2.8%)

Through Regulation (PP) No. 49/2025, the central government mandated provincial governments to announce their provincial minimum wage (UMP) increases by considering three variables

We have raised our 2026-2027F net profit by 13-53% after revising up our nickel ore sales forecast.

Monthly fiscal deficit widens. Monthly government spending accelerated 69.3% m-o-m to IDR540tn in December, reversing a 11% contraction in November.

All operators booked effective price increases, with median price hikes of 1-19% MoM across brands.

BI holds the policy rate again. Bank Indonesia kept the policy rate unchanged again at 4.75%, in line with expectations

The government’s plan to impose a moratorium on nickel smelter permits, as well as on existing permits that have not yet begun construction, should help ease the supply glut from Indonesia, which currently accounts for up to 70% of global nickel supply